COP30 analysis: can plant-based agroforestry really outperform livestock farming in Brazil?

A new study unveiled at COP30 in Belém is making bold claims about the future of Brazilian agriculture. According to research coordinated by ProVeg Brazil and conducted by the Agroecology Cooperative Organization (OCA), transitioning from livestock farming to plant-based agroforestry could more than double rural producers’ net income per hectare – potentially increasing it by 110%. In exceptional cases, the report suggests income gains of up to 1,525% when low-productivity cattle farming is replaced with diversified agroforestry systems.

These figures, while striking, are part of a broader narrative positioning agroforestry as a climate-smart, economically viable alternative to Brazil’s dominant livestock sector. The study, titled Increasing Income, Respecting the Planet, Nourishing People, argues that plant-based agroforestry not only boosts income but also regenerates degraded land, reduces deforestation, and creates more jobs. For every R$1 million in annual production, agroforestry generates 30 supply chain jobs – more than four times the employment impact of livestock farming.

The environmental rationale is equally compelling. Livestock farming is Brazil’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for roughly 60% of the national total. Methane from enteric fermentation in cattle alone exceeds Italy’s entire emissions footprint. Meanwhile, over 90% of Amazon deforestation between 1985 and 2023 was linked to pasture expansion. Agroforestry, by contrast, requires 12 times less land to achieve the same gross revenue, offering a pathway to meet Brazil’s climate targets while restoring degraded ecosystems.

The study also aligns with global dietary recommendations, including the EAT-Lancet Commission’s Planetary Health Diet, which advocates for a shift toward plant-based foods to improve public health and reduce environmental pressure. In Brazil, where animal product consumption exceeds national guidelines, the transition could help address rising rates of non-communicable diseases.

Yet despite the promise, scaling agroforestry faces significant hurdles. The report calls for coordinated public and financial policy support, including prioritisation in national agricultural programmes like Pronaf and improved access to technical assistance. It also urges the financial sector to redirect credit away from livestock projects in deforested areas and toward agroecological initiatives.

A pilot project in Ortigueira, Paraná, offers a glimpse into the transition’s real-world potential. There, a family farmer is replacing dairy and beef cattle with a diversified agroforestry system producing beans, corn, fruit, and eventually coffee and yerba mate. Early projections suggest income could increase tenfold in the first year, with added benefits in food diversity and quality of life.

While the economic and environmental case for plant-based agroforestry is gaining traction, its success will depend on political will, institutional reform, and farmer buy-in. As COP30 continues, the question remains: can Brazil turn this promising model into a mainstream solution for sustainable rural development?