Analysis: the end of "alternative"

As the first week of 2026 unfolds, a transformative shift in the German diet has been laid bare by a comprehensive new study.

For years, plant-based milk alternatives were relegated to health food shops and specialty aisles, often viewed as a compromise for those with allergies or specific ethical leanings. However, the latest research released by Danone Germany, in cooperation with the polling firm INNOFACT, confirms that these products have officially shed their niche status. They have become a permanent, mainstream fixture on the German breakfast table, bringing with them a new set of consumer expectations regarding nutrition, transparency, and fiscal fairness.

The study, based on a representative sample of over 1,500 people, paints a picture of a nation in the midst of a dietary evolution. Nearly half of all Germans — approximately 47 per cent — now consume plant-based milk alternatives, with 18 percent doing so on a regular basis.

This shift is most pronounced among the younger generation and, perhaps more surprisingly, within the traditional family unit. More than half of all young adults between the ages of 18 and 29 are now regular users of plant-based drinks. This demographic vanguard is joined by 56 per cent of households with children, signalling that the "oat milk revolution" is no longer just a trend for urban professionals but is being passed down to the next generation of consumers.

While the motivations for switching away from dairy are varied, two primary drivers have emerged as the dominant forces: health and animal welfare. Nearly half of those surveyed cited health benefits as a top priority, focusing on the intake of healthier fats and the absence of hormones or antibiotics.

Animal welfare followed closely behind, illustrating a growing public consciousness regarding the industrial farming of dairy cattle. However, despite these noble intentions, the reality of the checkout counter remains grounded in sensory satisfaction. When it comes to the final purchase decision, taste remains the ultimate gatekeeper for 84 per cent of shoppers, followed by consistency and the overall price-performance ratio.

Among the various plant-based options available, oat milk has emerged as the clear victor in the battle for market dominance. Almost half of all users reach for oat-based drinks frequently, prized for their creamy texture and ability to froth in coffee. Almond milk retains a strong second place, particularly among those seeking a lighter flavor profile, while soy milk continues to hold a specialised but loyal following, especially among vegetarians who value its high protein content.

One of the most significant insights provided by the Danone research is the emergence of the "nutrient premium." Consumers are no longer satisfied with simple plant extracts; they are increasingly looking for functional parity with traditional cow’s milk. This has created a massive opportunity for innovation within the sector.

A staggering 75 per cent of respondents indicated that they would be willing to pay more for products enriched with essential vitamins and minerals. The demand is specifically centred on calcium, vitamin D, and vitamin B12 — nutrients historically associated with dairy. This willingness to pay a higher price point suggests that for the modern German shopper, the value of a product is increasingly measured by its nutritional density rather than just its volume.

However, the study also highlights a glaring blind spot in the German consciousness regarding a critical trace element: iodine. Despite Germany’s geographical status as an iodine-deficient region, only 22 per cent of consumers pay close attention to their iodine intake. While most Germans rely on iodised table salt, many are unaware that plant-based milks do not naturally contain the iodine levels found in cow’s milk unless specifically fortified.

The thyroid gland, which requires iodine to regulate metabolism and energy levels, could become a focal point for public health campaigns in the coming year. Danone’s researchers noted that nearly 40 per cent of the population is unaware that Germans generally consume too little iodine, and two-thirds have never had their levels checked.

For the plant-based industry, this represents a major educational frontier. By integrating iodine into their fortification strategies and communicating its importance, brands can address a genuine public health need while further closing the nutritional gap between plant and animal products.

Beyond the supermarket aisles, the study also wades into the murky waters of national tax policy. There is a growing sense of incomprehension among the German public regarding the value added tax (VAT) applied to milk products. Currently, cow’s milk is taxed at the reduced rate of 7 per cent, categorised as a basic staple. In contrast, plant-based drinks are taxed at the standard "luxury" rate of 19 per cent, a disparity that only 34 per cent of consumers were aware of prior to the survey.

Once informed of this gap, public opinion was overwhelming. Approximately 61 per cent of Germans are now in favour of reducing the VAT on plant-based drinks to the 7 per cent level. This is not merely a matter of ideology; it is a significant economic barrier.

For 17 per cent of people who currently do not buy plant-based alternatives, a reduction in price through tax equalisation would be a concrete incentive to start. This creates a political challenge for the government, as the public increasingly views the current tax structure as a "health tax" or an "environmental penalty" on those trying to make sustainable choices.

The era of plant-based milk as a specialised "alternative" is over. It is now a primary grocery category that demands the same nutritional rigour and fair political treatment as any other staple food.

For companies like Danone, the mission is now two-fold: to continue refining the taste and texture that consumers demand, while leading the charge on fortification and political advocacy. The German consumer is asking for a glass of milk that is as kind to their metabolism and their wallet as it is to the planet.

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